Who will replace Mitch McConnell?

The announcement by Mitch McConnell that he will step down in November comes in anticipation that he would be bounced from his role regardless of the outcome of the 2024 election. Either Donald Trump’s victory would be deemed by populists as a chance to remake the party, or Trump’s failure would be laid at the feet of an intransigent establishment that McConnell has come to symbolize, in every way imaginable, deserved or not.

McConnell is hated by many, but also respected. He is a man with a significant legacy, borne from the before Trump times, of maintaining a position just to the right of the center of what was achievable. He owned the judicial battles. He was stubborn and intransigent. He hated the reform minded members of his coalition equally whether they came from right or left. And he has, as his greatest legacy, a reworking of the judiciary that will last for a generation. You can hate him. You can’t help but respect him

Unless you’re Donald Trump. Then you just hate him, and blame him for all your failings. And this will factor in, to a great degree, to the next choice of the Senate as it regards their leadership. Who will stand for it and what will they promise? They have until November to figure this out. But for the time being, here are the elements at play.

The Johns: Thune, Cornyn, Barrasso

Thune is viewed as the McConnell acolyte, most closely associated with his team. This is to his detriment. Cornyn is a very traditional leadership type with feet in both camps. But he’s also someone categorized as older, headed to the exits

The fundraiser: Daines

Steve Daines is already racking up impressive performance at the NRSC and Trump has boosted him for this. But the conference doesn’t necessarily like him or find him leadership material

The Florida men: Rubio and Scott

Rick Scott tried before in a quixotic fashion, and he has the ears of many in the donor class. Marco Rubio could absolutely seize this moment if he wanted to, outlining a path forward that finds a way between the factions. But is he willing to do the job?

The compromise: Cotton

Tom Cotton is viewed by many people as someone who may choose to step forward in this moment as a representative of both the pre-Trump and post-Trump factions. But his foreign policy views are by far the most hawkish of the conceivable replacements

This is a truly historic moment for the Senate GOP. No matter the direction they choose, it will mark a shift from the past and a bet on the future.