Only Biden wins when conservatives fight over abortion

Last week, Arizona joined fourteen other states that have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy after the state’s Supreme Court ruled that officials may enforce a 160-year-old law that criminalizes all abortions, except for those that threaten a woman’s life. This led to a strong response from the left. But more intriguing was the spat between conservative pundits and strategists that followed. 

In short, one faction, led by presidential candidate Donald Trump, believes that to win in the next election cycle, political battles over abortion should be disincentivized — even if that means borrowing a bit from Bill Clinton’s “safe, legal and rare” messaging. The others think that moderating on this issue is not only morally unjustifiable, but also strategically incoherent. Republicans “let the Democrats set the terms of the debate. They play defense. They play scared. And they lose,” suggests the Daily Wire’s Matt Walsh.

Although broadly speaking, Walsh’s sentiment is in the right place, his analysis misses the bigger picture. It may be true that staunch pro-choicers aren’t running to the right with a moderating Trump — and sure, many pro-life organizers aren’t ecstatic. Still, the logic for his position is not moderation for the sake of the individual battle; it’s about neutralization in pursuit of a broader agenda. 

In pursuing this strategy, Trump is absolutely right. The facts are inescapable: pro-choicers have won every post-Roe abortion ballot initiative. For better or for worse, when elections become referendums over abortion, the enthusiasm gap favors Democrats. While you could blame this on Republicans being gutless and dumb, a time-sensitive analysis indicates that deprioritizing the issue heading to the 2024 election is the safer choice. The assertion that abandoning the conversation altogether benefits the pro-choice movement has some truth to it, yet the results speak clearly.

On ballots, not in courtrooms, pro-choicers have been knocking out their pro-life opponents at every turn. They could jump in the ring again, all bruised up but with their heads high, but maybe the smart thing to do is to shut up, go train and pick the fight later.

Pro-lifers should be able to understand that pushing too hard, restricting too much, only makes it easier for Biden to mobilize voters and potentially sign a federal law. Even if the goal is to restrict the practice, the case for not making it a central component of Trump’s campaign remains sensible. And strangely, reducing the abortion talk may very well be, politically speaking, the pro-life position. 

Speaking at Politico’s Health Care Summit last month, Kellyanne Conway, former counselor to Trump, said, “If it took fifty years to overturn Roe v. Wade, it’s going to take more than fifty minutes, fifty hours or fifty weeks to explain to people what that means and more importantly, what it doesn’t mean, and to move hearts and minds.” Conway urged Republicans to avoid controversial ballot initiatives on the issue heading to the 2024 election cycle.

If pro-lifers’ goal is to win — and it should always be, as losers don’t legislate — Conway has a point. Indulge too much in pursuit of small wins — and you could end up losing the bigger contests. The presidential election is one such race. With immigration and economics being the top issues on voters’ minds, the conditions favor Trump. The same cannot be said about abortion. 

Following the Arizona ruling, the White House responded by calling it a “cruel ban” that was first enacted “before Arizona was even a state and well before women had secured the right to vote.” Similarly, Democrats in Congress, such as Representative Shontel Brown joined in, labeling the decision “brutal, backwards and barbaric.” One could have a nice conversation about the philosophy of it all, but the optics aren’t it. The biggest winners here were in Biden HQ. 

For pro-life organizations, the decision might have been a win. Alliance Defending Freedom, a legal-advocacy group that played a crucial role in the overturning of Roe v. Wade, told the New York Times: “We celebrate the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision that allows the state’s pro-life law to again protect the lives of countless, innocent, unborn children.” Yet would they celebrate if Biden wins in November? Probably not.