Will Gavin Newsom replace Joe Biden?

I have on the desk two yo-yos. One is from the brand Duncan — the “Imperial” model. The other is from the brand Yomega — the “Fireball.” Which is better?  The Imperial is the top-of-the-line Duncan model, a classic, that gave warrant to company’s 1960s slogan: “If it isn’t a Duncan, it isn’t a yo-yo.” The Imperial is the vintage Rolls Royce of yo-yos. It’s elegant but not for the racecourse. The Fireball, introduced in the 1990s, was part of the new generation of “transaxle”yoyos, which allow for sustained spin and complex tricks. It is a sports car — though since superseded by much higher performance models.

While you weigh that choice, let’s give some thought to the situation of California governor Gavin Newsom. Two years ago in comparing Newsom to Governor DeSantis of Florida, I said Newsom embodies “the glamour of coastal California. Handsome, relaxed, poised, and in control of the situation.” DeSantis’s presidential hopes quickly fell by the wayside, but Newsom made clear that he was ready and waiting if the Democratic Party found itself in need of a California-swept replacement to Joe Biden who was not named Kamala. Has that moment arrived?  

It is not hard to imagine Gavin Newsom stepping into the bedroom slippers of Sleepy Joe if he retires

As I write, there is no sign that Uncle Joe is about to throw in the towel, but plenty of Democrats are hoping he will, and others are scheming to that end. Newsom, of course, cannot be seen as hastening Joe’s retirement, but neither can he sit still for long. To jump into the race, he would need to raise fantastic amounts of money quickly. And a stumbling late-entry into the race could compromise his prospects to run in 2028.  

If Biden concedes to the reality of his infirmities and diminished competence, who else other than Newsom is there to defy the now seemingly inevitable Trump? Kamala Harris, as VP, is the easiest to run but also the most certain to lose. She has all the charm of Hillary Clinton and the eloquence of a refrigerator magnet. Her trademark cackle is an air-raid siren announcing the prospect of a heavy bombardment of banalities.

Apart from Kamala and Newsom, who? The Guardian lists J. B. Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, Sherrod Brown and Dean Phillips as possibilities. I won’t waste time explaining why they aren’t. Suffice it to say that very few Americans know who they are and those who do don’t much like them. Pritzker is governor of Illinois which contends with New Jersey for the title of most corrupt state in the country. Whitmer, the best known of the bunch, is governor of Michigan best remembered for her Boris Johnson-style Covid follies. Brown is an Ohio senator best known for sticking to local Ohio issues. Phillips is a Minnesota congressman who ran a failed challenge to Biden for the Democratic nomination. 

The only other names that come up with any frequency are Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Both have to be considered longshots, but they each have a small corral of supporters.

All this is to say that Newsom’s biggest advantage in the shadow race for an alternative to Joe Biden is that the list of alternatives is so spare. If you need a last minute sub for Joe, Newsom is standing there with an invisible sign that says: “Pick me!”

There are lots of reasons not to. Some of those can be tracked by looking at the reasons why the middle class is moving out of California: sky-high gasoline taxes; the highest state income tax; failure to sustain the housing market; soaring poverty and homelessness; and a declining quality of life in what was the nation’s most hospitable state now hang around Newsom’s neck. He is not responsible for all of this, but in his sixth year as governor he owns the deep dissatisfactions of California’s citizenry. But beyond his domestic problems, he has come to embody the Democratic Party’s reputation for that odd combination of authoritarian governance and heedlessness towards the welfare of ordinary people.  

These qualities might actually be attractions for President Biden’s inner circle.  They could find in Newsom someone as indifferent to mass illegal immigration as they are, and someone who is comfortable with the agenda of replacing the modern carbon-based economy with dreams of alternative energy.  

So, it is not that hard to imagine Gavin Newsom stepping into the bedroom slippers of Sleepy Joe, if he indeed retires. He could indeed be the replacement candidate. That said, it is a whole lot harder to see Newsom defeating Trump, who has the momentum at this point to prevail in November no matter whom the Democrats run.

Which brings me back to yo-yos. These delightful toys were introduced to the US in 1920s by Pedro Flores, a Filipino immigrant. He sold his company to Donald Duncan in 1929 and Duncan trademarked the name. But in 1965 a US court declared that yo-yo has become a common part of speech. Suddenly it didn’t have to be a Duncan to be a yo-yo. Today, America is blessed with a fine variety of yo-yos. Some are flashy; some artisanal; some have exceptional endurance; some are just pretty.

All yo-yos, however, wear out. Your favorite no longer glides. It leans to the side. It drops to the floor and just stays there or it tangles itself in reduplicated knots. You have to know when it is time to move on.  Imperial or Fireball? I say Fireball.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.