Who should Kamala run with?

It’s Kamala. The result of the last days, capping off one of the most eventful weeks in American political history, has been to all but confirm Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for president this November.

More than half the delegates at the upcoming DNC in Chicago have pledged their support to her and the number is fast-rising. She has also pulled in several big name endorsements. It is true that Barack Obama has held back his support, but she has secured the backing of most of the serious players, including former speaker of the House — and driving force behind Joe Biden’s defenestration — Nancy Pelosi.

Kamala Harris will need to make a gamble

The question now becomes who the best candidate would be for Kamala Harris’ vice presidential pick. With Harris polling poorly, and without the usual primary process, the campaign will want someone who appeals to voters that Harris does not. Her running mate will likely play a prominent role on the campaign.

Harris needs to make both a safe choice that appeals to middle-class and working-class white voters, especially men, but also a bold choice — someone who can shift the dial and grab attention on the trail.

Some of the names in the fold: landslide-winning Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, North Carolina governor and state stalwart Roy Cooper, Arizona senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear, Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker and heir to the Hyatt fortune, transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, and the vaunted California governor Gavin Newsom. (Newsom is from California, the same state as Harris, so there are constitutional difficulties with picking him.)

All these possible candidates, bar one, have the same thing in common: they are white men and mostly lean to the center. That will be an important attribute for Harris, who performs better with left-leaning voters, African Americans and women. Trump built a commanding twenty-two-point lead over Biden with men; it will be crucial for Harris to whittle that down closer to the eight points Trump won by in 2020 to have a shot at the White House.

One argument made is that the vice-presidential pick should be from a winnable swing state. This has been one of the things to put Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania, won by Biden by 50 percent to 49 percent in 2020), and Mark Kelly (Arizona, won by Biden by just 0.3 percent in 2020) into the spotlight.

But the evidence shows that, unlike presidents, VP picks do not tend to bring a home state advantage with them. Elizabethtown College and Mount Vernon Nazarene University did some analysis in 2016, and concluded that while presidential candidates enjoy a home-state advantage (often three to seven points), vice presidential candidates usually do not.

The “vibe” of the candidate is more important than the state they are from. The demographic groups that Harris lacks support among are looking for strength, plain-speaking and an understanding of blue-collar workers. It will also help if they are not seen as too liberal. If the candidate convincingly embodies that, and can survive under pressure, they will perform better for Harris on the ticket.

Who fits this bill? Probably not Shapiro and Cooper (though the former is popular, so remains a competitive choice). Newsom is too liberal and Buttigieg does not feel like a lightning rod for blue collar votes. Kelly is an interesting choice: he is seen as moderate, has credentials that appeal and being from Arizona is more convincingly able to cover Harris on one of her weakest issues, the border. Kelly is also one of the most prolific fundraisers in the country. J.B. Pritzker has potential: he embodies strength and straight-talking midwestern values. Andy Beshear is also a tempting choice: forty-six-years old and a governor of deep-red Kentucky, he is clearly a highly proficient politician. He made a convincing attack on J.D. Vance on Monday, saying Vance’s comments on rural poor white people are a direct attack on himself and his family.

The existing polling is scant on the widespread appeal of some of these names, mainly as so few of them are known. Interviews I conducted with swing voters in Georgia, just after the debate that ended up felling Joe Biden, were scathing on some. Buttigieg was derided as “too Disney,” “a small-town mayor,” and someone commented that “America is not ready for a gay leader.” Gavin Newsom was written off as a “far-left liberal” and someone who had left California a “mess.” Gretchen Whitmer was seen as being too accommodating of different views to the point “we don’t know what she stands for.” The other names were not known to the people I spoke to, though Beshear and Shapiro have some of the best approval ratings in the states they represent.

Kamala Harris will need to make a gamble. Kamala will need to pick someone with low name recognition, but who she is confident can forge an identity for themselves nationally. They will need to embody the values and attributes that a white working-class man who voted for Trump in 2016, but Biden in 2020, is seeking, without putting off other voters. With the race for the top of the ticket seemingly over, this challenge will dominate the coming weeks.

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This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.