Kamala’s coronation doesn’t help the Democrats

Does anyone else feel like an entire year has happened in the last week? Last Monday, former president Donald Trump arrived at the Republican National Convention after being a quarter-of-an-inch away from assassination (and losing part of his ear in the process), Jack Smith’s classified documents case against Trump was thrown out by a federal judge, President Joe Biden caught Covid and, finally, yesterday Biden announced that he is not running for re-election and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris to be the new nominee. Deep breath in, deep breath out. Today’s edition of the DC Diary includes multiple items that will hopefully help you feel more prepared for what may come next.

The first order of business is to attempt to answer the question I’ve received most from friends and family: can Kamala Harris win? It was pretty much assumed that Biden could not win after his debate performance in June, so I think the question is more aptly framed as, is Kamala Harris better than Biden?

The immediate answer is no, she might actually be worse. Harris had a lower approval rating than Biden for most of her vice presidency and early polls suggest she performs worse against Trump than Biden does. According to a survey conducted July 10-14 by Deep Root Analytics, Trump leads Biden 42.9 percent to 40.5 nationally, but leads Harris 43.3 to 40.5. Harris also underperforms generic Democrats by two points. She carries all of the baggage of the Biden administration with none of the likability of Scranton Joe. You might make the case that she helps with female voters, but her position on abortion is much more extreme than Biden, who had the cover of being nominally Catholic and “personally pro-life.” Compared to Trump’s moderate stance of leaving abortion policy to the states, Harris looks much further left than the electorate on this issue.

It is usually not advised to put too much stock into polls on hypothetical situations. To be fair, Harris will probably enjoy a small bump in the polls when she sews up the nomination. But I would generally expect her numbers to get worse as she starts campaigning. Aside from the occasional public speaking event, which often end up producing off-putting viral videos, Harris has mostly been sidelined in the Biden administration. People have forgotten how bad she was in the 2020 Democratic primary. Remember: she did not even make it to Iowa and her candidacy was killed in the second primary debate by Tulsi Gabbard’s sharp critique of her prosecutorial record. The more voters see of Harris, it seems, the less they like her. Axios even reported that in April 2022 Harris’s staff had to set up a mock dinner party for their boss because she had “anxiety” about attending a salon-style dinner with DC-based journalists. 

Some Democrats, perhaps aware of Harris’s poor political instincts, are testing out a new tactic to support her. CNN commentator Bakari Sellers not so subtly suggested that the party should turn criticisms of Biden’s age onto Trump: “Kamala Harris is running against the oldest nominee for president of the United States in American history… I mean, the man is nearly eighty years old and so the question is, can he serve another four years? I’m not sure he can.” Of course, questions about Biden’s “age” were really questions about his physical and cognitive ability that are simply not reflected in Trump. They’ll have to come up with better spin if Harris is to win a presidential election in just over 100 days. 

-Amber Duke

On our radar

HAUNTED MANCHIN West Virginia senator Joe Manchin said he is still not running for president upon news President Joe Biden is dropping out of the race, but he urged the Democrats to have a “mini-primary” rather than coronating Vice President Kamala Harris. 

RIP SHEILA JACKSON LEE Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee from Texas passed away Friday evening after a battle with pancreatic cancer. Jackson Lee disclosed her diagnosis to the public just two months ago. She served in the House of Representatives for twenty-nine years. 

TRUMP TEES OFF Former president Donald Trump will appear in a YouTube golf challenge video with LIV golfer and 2024 US Open winner Bryon DeChambeau on Tuesday. DeChambeau announced the pair will donate $10,000 to Wounded Warriors Project for every stroke they score under par.

Donors split on Kamala 

In under twenty-four hours, Vice President Kamala Harris racked up $81 million in donations to her presidential campaign. According to ActBlue, a Democratic fundraising platform for grassroots donors, Sunday was the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 election cycle.

When it comes to big-money campaign contributors, though, word is still out on whether Kamala can garner their support. BBC reported today that donors who had pulled back their funding over concerns about Mr. Biden’s age say they now intend to resume their support for the party. CNBC’s Brian Schwartz confirms that these donors are coming back, “I’m told, in droves.”

Some bigwigs have expressed support for Harris publicly. Alex Soros, the son and heir of George Soros, LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman and Biden supporter Stephen Cozen have all backed Kamala.

However, Mike Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings and a cryptocurrency billionaire, expressed concerns. “Donors behind the scenes are saying, who’s the best ticket to win?” he told the New York Times. “And the donor community I speak to doesn’t think she’s the best to win, but everybody thinks she deserves a fair chance.”

Reed Hastings, executive chair of Netflix and a long-time donor to the Democratic Party, tweeted, “Dem delegates need to pick a swing state winner.” 

Vinod Khosla said, “I want an open process at the convention and not a coronation.” The donor and investor added, “The key still is who can best beat Trump above all other priorities.”

John Morgan, a Florida lawyer and Biden donor, said he would not fundraise for the Harris campaign.

Word is still out on whether Democratic kingmaker and former president Barack Obama will endorse Harris; if he gives her the thumbs up, maybe more big donors will feel comfortable parting with their money. 

–Ella Johnson

Mr. Netanyahu goes to Washington

Following one of the most chaotic weeks of modern American politics, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington today. The visit will mark Netanyahu’s first visit to the US capital city in close to four years. It is also his first trip abroad since October 7.

The prime minister is expected to meet with President Joe Biden on Tuesday afternoon. The next day he is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress. The address will be his fourth, meaning that he will surpass Winston Churchill as the foreign leader to have addressed Congress the most. 

In his letter inviting Netanyahu to Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson announced that the prime minister will have the opportunity to lay out his “government’s vision for defending democracy, combating terror, and establishing a just and lasting peace in the region.” Controversially, at a pro-Israel event in Milwaukee, Johnson also said in regard to “a number of Democrats in the House who have said they are going to boycott the event” that there will be “extra sergeants-at-arms on the floor, and if anybody gets out of hand the speaker of the House will bang the gavel.”

“We’re gonna arrest people if we have to do it. We’re gonna get the message out,” Johnson said. 

Netanyahu’s visit also means plenty of questions about what Kamala Harris’s ascension (following Biden’s decision to drop out of the election) means for Israel. Next to Biden, Harris appears more willing to publicly criticize the Israeli government. In March, for instance, NBC News reported that the White House National Security Council had to tone down a speech by Harris about the then-floated six-week ceasefire deal.

It is important to note, however, that while there may be a change in tone, that does not mean there would be a significant change in policy. Harris does have strong ties with Jewish groups, especially considering that her husband, Doug Emhoff, has acted as a liaison of sorts for the Jewish community in the White House. Nonetheless, as more of an ideological anti-interventionist, siding with policies such as ending trade restrictions on Cuba, many worry that a Democratic Party led by Harris is one that will re-examine America’s relationship with Israel. 

–Juan P. Villasmil