The cultural chasm between Biden and Trump supporters

A new Pew Research poll with some stunning findings challenges common critiques from centrist and moderate politicos that the so-called “culture war” is a distraction or even imaginary. On the contrary, the results show a massive cultural chasm between Biden and Trump supporters that helps explain why America seems so politically divided — and why compromise often feels impossible.

According to the survey of 8,709 adults, including 7,166 registered voters, Biden and Trump supporters are diametrically opposed on crucial issues: the role of guns in society, the legacy of slavery in America, the country’s posture toward immigration, the operation of the criminal justice system, the importance of family creation and the relationship between gender identity and biological sex, among others. Only 19 percent of Biden supporters, for example, said that “society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority.” Fifty-nine percent of Trump supporters said the same. Just 9 percent of Trump supporters said that someone can be a different gender than their biological sex, while 59 percent of Biden supporters said that they can. Biden supporters were far less likely to say that gun ownership increases the safety of Americans, that the criminal justice system should do more to hold criminals accountable, that illegal immigrants should face mass deportation, and that the nation’s falling birth rate is a problem.

These fundamental disagreements come at a time when the broader American public seems to be breaking to the right on some cultural issues. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say that a person’s gender is determined by their sex at birth, up from 60 percent in 2022 and 56 percent in 2021. A majority of voters also support deporting all illegal immigrants and want a tougher criminal justice system. Gun ownership also reached a record high last year.

The poll is published at a time when Biden continues to poll poorly — his approval rating just hit a record low — and some wonder if Democrats will ultimately replace him at the top of the ticket. Pollster Nate Silver warned that at some point “continuing to run is a bigger risk” than the circus that would come with Biden stepping aside and rejecting the nomination. Left-leaning columnist Mark Leibovich borrowed a joke from comedian Bill Maher, calling Biden “Ruth Bader Biden,” and portending that Biden could shoot Democrats in the foot by trying to hold out for a second term. “Biden’s conduct is far worse than Ginsburg’s, in fact, given the awesome power of the presidency and the havoc Trump could unleash with it this time,” Leibovich wrote. 

Alongside his ideological issues, a majority of voters say Biden is too old to be president. In an awkward moment at a Juneteenth event at the White House, the president stood stiffly and smiled into the distance during a musical performance as officials and family members around him danced. 

-Amber Duke

On our radar

AG IN CONTEMPT Republicans in Congress are seeking to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt for refusing to turn over audio recordings of President Joe Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur in the classified documents case. 

‘A DEAL WAS ON THE TABLE’ Secretary of state Antony Blinken said ceasefire negotiations have stalled again as Hamas came back to an Israeli proposal with conditions that are not “workable” and go beyond what the Palestinian terror group has previously deemed acceptable. 

TALL ORDER The popular coffee chain Starbucks is facing declining sales amid inflation-driven price hikes, boycotts from pro-Palestinian activists and fights with unionizing employees over wages and working conditions. 

FBI crime stats don’t tell the whole story

The FBI has released its 2024 Quarterly Crime Report and Use-of-Force Data Update, and, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of deaths — or lack of deaths, rather — have been greatly exaggerated.

According to the Bureau, “data for January through March 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 15.2 percent. Murder decreased by 26.4 percent, rape decreased by 25.7 percent, robbery decreased by 17.8 percent and aggravated assault decreased by 12.5 percent. Reported property crime also decreased by 15.1 percent.”

Amazing news! If only it stood up to scrutiny.

Several experts were quick to point out that the reports of crime “plummeting” is likely a matter of crime reporting plummeting.

“Let me help you understand this,” former FBI agent R.R. Holiman wrote on Twitter/X. “Since most of the major Democrat cities have stopped reporting their crime stats to the FBI (some partially, some fully), I would be surprised to see it do anything else. Less crime is a lot different than less crime being reported, but it can sure look the same on the surface.”

John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center who served in the Trump administration’s DoJ, told Newsweek the FBI’s numbers “make up less than 45 percent of the violent crimes that are committed in the US and only 32 percent of property crimes. Victims are not reporting incidents as often because they don’t believe anyone will be punished.” 

Lott added, “The reason why we have the National Crime Victimization Survey [an annual survey conducted by the DoJ] is because we know most crimes are not reported to police.”

The dubious nature of the FBI’s report, did not, of course, stop the Biden administration from taking credit for the “decline” in crime.

“My administration is putting more cops on the beat, holding violent criminals accountable and getting illegal guns off the street — and we are doing it in partnership with communities,” Biden said in a statement. “As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office.”

–Teresa Mull

Trump versus the Club for Growth

Last night’s primaries across America spotlighted a trend that political strategists have been remarking upon to Cockburn for a few weeks now: the at-times tenuous relationship between President Donald Trump and the Club for Growth, despite the two sides making nice earlier this year.

Look no further than in the primary to fill North Dakota’s open House seat, where Trump and the group his orbit once dubbed the “Club for China Growth” were on opposite sides. Trump joined his potential running mate, Governor Doug Burgum, in backing Republican Julie Fedorchak in the race. In contrast, the Club spent around half a million dollars for ex-independent Rick Becker before suddenly pulling its ads from the air in the race’s home stretch.

Both Trump and the Club backed Representative Nancy Mace in her convincing primary win last night — but they have found themselves at odds in other key races around the country. In a primary for Maine’s toss-up House district, a Club-backed group spent money on radio ads backing Mike Soboleski, who lost decisively to Trump’s pick, ex-NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.

This relationship is going to be put to a far bigger test next week, as Trump is trying to take out Representative Bob Good, the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, who has the support of the Club. Good drew Trump’s ire by endorsing Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary. 

–Cockburn