Welcome to Thunderdome. One of the Biden White House’s biggest problems at the moment is that while they can point to all manner of aspects of the economy that are doing just fine — above all, the stock market — the lived experience of many key segments of the electorate is totally at odds with this analysis. Hammered by higher food, energy, healthcare and education costs, American households feel constrained by rates that keep them trapped in homes they no longer want to live in, with cars they no longer want to drive. Are people in gas lines and starving? No, of course not. But a line in a recent Wall Street Journal piece encapsulates the situation: “We used to take three vacations a year. Now we take one.” That’s a well-paid sanitation worker, by the way, who adds:

California is just too expensive. There are taxes on everything. My wife and I are considering moving to Arizona or even Texas. We’re Democrats and those are red states, but we’re willing to make that sacrifice.

That’s enough to make anyone feel depressed — it’s the equivalent of affording chicken, beans, or instant pasta for dinner again, not salmon and steak. That’s not what makes people feel optimistic. And it’s why more than half of Americans believe we’re currently in a recession:

It can be difficult to know if a recession is actually happening — it’s a call typically made after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. (The NBER called the 2008 recession months after most people believed we were in one.)

In order for there to be a recession, there typically needs to be a significant decline in economic activity. That’s not the case now. The US economy, as measured by GDP, is growing. It looks like inflation and the higher cost of living — indicators not typically part of the recession call by the NBER — could be shaping Americans’ views.

Seventy percent of Americans said that cost of living is their biggest economic concern, followed by inflation at 68 percent.

Two-thirds of Americans, including 65 percent of Democrats, report it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month.

While the rate of inflation has slowed since its 2022 highs, it is still higher than most Americans are used to — and prices are up a great deal from 2019.

Here’s the simple fact: prices are up 31 percent at fast service restaurants, vs. average hourly earnings up 25 percent. My daughter only gets a Happy Meal about once a month anyway, but believe me, I notice the difference in price when she does. For people who get their kids a lot more chicken nuggets, that’s got to be a more ever-present reminder. And unfortunately for the White House, at this late stage there’s nothing they can do about it, even if they wanted.

Nikki Haley has had enough of this crap

For as much consternation about the Trump campaign offering little if anything to the Nikki Haley voter, the Biden White House has offered so little that the governor is already endorsing Trump.

Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations and a leading rival to former president Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary, announced on Wednesday that she plans to vote for Trump in the November election following a speech in which she blasted the Biden administration’s handling of foreign policy.

Haley and Trump sparred on a range of issues, particularly foreign policy, during the presidential primary, and Haley routinely continues to win over a notable faction of anti-Trump GOP voters in Republican primaries across the country, months after she dropped out of the race.

“Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me, and not assume that they’re just going to be with him. And I genuinely hope he does that,” Haley said in an appearance at the Hudson Institute.

She called Trump “not perfect” on national security but said Biden has been “a catastrophe.”

Veepstake contenders push forward

Howard Kurtz on the self-promotion efforts.

Tim Scott has been publicly seeking the nomination since his own presidential campaign quickly imploded. But Trump has sounded dismissive, saying the Senate’s only black Republican does a better job advocating for him than for himself but is a “high-quality person.” He’s accusing Joe Biden of pandering to blacks, but his mild-mannered approach may be a detriment. 

Still, the senator is included near the top of every media list.

Doug Burgum is the obscure North Dakota governor and tech entrepreneur whose presidential campaign vanished without a trace. But wait — here comes word that Trump likes him!

Washington Post: “Trump’s allies have discussed Burgum as a potential vice-presidential candidate, even as they caution that the list remains long.”

Wall Street Journal: “Rich, Loyal and Good Looking: Why Little-Known Doug Burgum Is in Trump’s VP Mix.”

Yahoo: “Doug Burgum has emerged unexpectedly as a top choice to serve as former President Trump’s running mate.”

Marco Rubio, who lost to Trump in 2016, got his moment after doing well at a donor event.

NBC: “Senator Marco Rubio is moving up the list of former president Donald Trump’s potential vice presidential picks, according to six people familiar with the presumptive Republican nominee’s search for a running mate.”

Financial Times: “Marco Rubio has emerged as a favorite of donors to become Donald Trump’s running mate, as the former president looks for candidates who can widen his appeal and help fund his White House campaign and legal bills.”

A major complication: the Constitution bars running mates from being from the same state. But the Florida senator has suggested he’d move out of state.

J.D. Vance, the Ohio senator, drew major media notice when he went to the Trump trial last week and denounced chief accuser Michael Cohen.

The Hill: “Vance Challenges Scott for Top Spot on Trump VP Shortlist.”

New York Times: “J.D. Vance, in the Mix to Be Trump’s Running Mate, Denounces Witness.”

Washington Post: “J.D. Vance, from Never Trumper to Running Mate Contender.”

But when Vance was just an author, in 2016, he warned Christian voters about Trump, “When we apologize for this man, Lord help us.”

Trump has noted that Vance once “said some bad s— about me.” But he has been known to forgive past critics, such as Ted Cruz and the man he once dubbed “Little Marco.”

On crime, Biden stands up to the left

So as much as this White House has bent over backwards to please progressives on Israel, the economy and immigration, it does seem there’s one area that’s a bridge too far: crime. 

The defeat of a liberal Portland prosecutor at the hands of a tough-on-crime challenger has hardened a view among top White House officials that Democrats need to further distance themselves from their left flank on law-and-order issues.

In the wake of the voter backlash over public safety in Oregon, Joe Biden’s aides this week argued the results served as validation of their long-running concerns that crime and an immigration crisis at the southern border risk overwhelming the president’s case for reelection — especially if the broader party is seen as soft on both fronts.

“Particularly right now, Americans don’t want to feel like things are out of control,” said one Biden official, who was granted anonymity to offer candid views about tensions within the party. “Well-meaning ideas have gone too far, and we need a sensible approach.”

The White House is banking on the idea that voters will reward them for public efforts to crack down on immigration and boost spending on law enforcement — and, perhaps as importantly, that the liberal forces that so effectively moved the party away from those planks in 2020 won’t punish the president come November.

Inside the West Wing, senior counselor Steve Ricchetti has been among the leading voices making this case, while also advocating for more toughness on the border, according to the Biden official and one other, both granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

But the president has not needed much convincing, the officials said, having personally favored an approach that emphasizes more traditional support for law enforcement alongside criminal justice reforms. Biden spent much of his half century in politics as an ardent advocate for law enforcement and anti-crime measures, a reputation that complicated his path to the 2020 Democratic nomination amid scrutiny over his role in passing a controversial 1994 crime bill.

One more thing

Mike Johnson’s approach to the speakership has been uneven at best. He’s never run an office with more than twenty-five people after all, and his mood of being a southern Baptist Deacon-type has not played well with a number of conservatives. But one thing he has done is effectively box in Democrats on a handful of issues — the latest being his effort to have Bibi Netanyahu come to address a joint session of Congress. It’s a smart move, one that puts the screws to Chuck Schumer and the radical left, and could bear fruit with that same “Nikki Haley” cohort and social conservative voters who care deeply about these issues in 2024. As for Schumer, you made your bed, enjoy it.