Why Biden and Trump risk upsetting ‘the base’

The Arizona Supreme Court ruling that upheld an abortion ban from 1864 had Democratic campaign managers practically breaking out their tap shoes.

In between the breathless rants about how “women will die” because of the ruling (that Arizona’s attorney general immediately announced she would not enforce), the opportunists of the left couldn’t hide their true ambition.

John Heilemann told the nodding eggheads at Morning Joe that the “political effect” of the ruling “could not be better for Joe Biden.”

And there it is: Democrats are far less concerned with an archaic abortion ban and far more concerned with changing the political winds for their floundering incumbent.

Can you blame them? Biden hasn’t had much traction as of late — even with his new rubber-soled sneakers.

The White House immediately released a statement declaring that the ruling was a result of “the extreme agenda of Republican-elected officials.”

Even the Associated Press admitted to the politicization game with their piece, “Democrats pounce on Arizona abortion ruling and say it could help them in November’s election.” There was I thinking only Republicans who could pounce. The more you know!

There is no question that the Democrats believes abortion “rights” could be politically useful in 2024. After all, the overturning of Roe v. Wade did wonders for their midterm outcomes in 2022. However given Trump’s statement on the issue this week, their approach might need some recalibrating.

The former president announced Monday that he believes abortion laws should be left to the states. That stance is not just far from radical; it’s far more in line with the moderate independents in this country than the fear-mongering talking heads on MSNBC would ever admit.

Make no mistake though: in politics everything comes with a price. Shortly after Trump’s statement, there was panic about how the former president’s latest pivot on abortion could turn his pro-life supporters against him. The president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, Marjorie Dannenfelser, released a statement saying the organization was “deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position.”

The pro-life activists might be disappointed in Trump’s reversal, but it seems that they aren’t wiling to throw the baby out with the bathwater. At the end of her statement, Dannenfelser reiterated that the organization would “work tirelessly to defeat President Biden and extreme congressional Democrats.”

Trump’s detractors might salivate over the thought of pro-lifers leaving him in the lurch, but they are being unrealistic. After all, Trump doesn’t have to be the most pro-life candidate ever; he just needs to be less pro-abortion than devout Catholic Joe Biden. Much like outrunning a bear, you don’t need to be faster than the bear; you just need to be faster than your friend. In most cases, it isn’t hard to out-run Joe.

And the current president is also walking a tightrope with his base. Biden is desperate to placate the cafeteria-storming radicals who have been demanding a ceasefire in Gaza since October 8. At the same time, he doesn’t want to lose moderate Democrats and independents who expect the sitting US president to at the very least advocate on behalf of Israeli and American hostages being held captive by Hamas.

The anti-Israel activists skew young and Biden desperately needs the youth vote. That’s why he keeps trying to cancel student loan debt, laws be damned, and why his administration created a TikTok account. Alas, the massive bribes and cringeworthy pandering don’t seem to be doing the trick.

In the Michigan primary the uncommitted movement garnered support from over 100,000 voters. It was a warning shot from the swaths of angry progressives to Biden: we are willing to leave you in the dust.

A lot of politics comes down to calculating the risks versus the rewards, trying to figure out how much you can afford to piss off one group of people without losing their votes in order to hopefully woo another block of voters. The math is dicey, but it can pay off come November.

Both of the 2024 candidates are angering their activist bases and placing their bets. Whoever can push their door-knockers to the edge without sending them off the cliff might end up as the last man standing.