Sinema exits, leaving behind a divided Arizona

Senator Kyrsten Sinema, the bipartisan independent from Arizona, announced Tuesday she would not seek re-election. This isn’t the biggest shock, considering Americans’ current aversion to conversation and compromise. 

The senator kept silent for months, avoiding any questions about her political future. But over that time, her approval polls remained as low as her Election Day chances. 

In a social media post, Sinema lamented the current era of hyperpartisanship. 

“It’s all or nothing. The outcome is less important than beating the other guy,” she said in a brief video. “The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic… Compromise is a dirty word.” 

“We’ve arrived at that crossroad and we chose anger and division,” Sinema continued. “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.” 

She’s right about that. Sinema joins a long list of frustrated Republicans and Democrats abandoning elective office to the cable-news shouters and ineffectual ideologues. Her own position was previously vacated by Senator Jeff Flake, who couldn’t get a hearing during the Trump era. 

Her likely replacement will better fit the angry public mood, whoever wins. Republicans will nominate failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who is currently running against a smattering of barely-knowns. Since her narrow 2022 defeat, Lake has spent most of her time insisting the election was rigged, losing court cases and posting selfies from Mar-a-Lago. 

Representative Ruben Gallego, a four-term congressman from a deep-blue urban district, will represent the Democrats. He’s far less known, even in-state, but raised his profile with withering attacks on Sinema. He basically begged her to leave the party then got upset when she did. 

Gallego seems an odd fit for Arizona since his progressive views are more in line with the Squad than an average Democrat. His X (formerly Twitter) feed is replete with profane tirades, dropping more f-bombs than Donald Trump on a bad-hair day. 

In one of many soliloquys he intoned, “Just to be clear fuck you @tedcruz you fucking baby killer.” Not exactly the Federalist Papers, but that’s politics in the Year of Our Lord 2024. 

Then, there are Gallego’s policies. As of last year, the congressman voted in line with Biden’s stated position 100 percent of the time. Not the best fit in a state where the president has a 37 percent approval rating. 

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Gallego called to expel every Russian university student from the US. That might help Putin fill up his tanks and gulags, but the xenophobia even drew alarm from fellow Democrats. 

“If you are a Republican, you have to have a bunch of guns, a jacked-up truck with some cow nuts hanging in the back,” Gallego said. “That’s your cultural identity now.” 

This laptop bravado might work in DC, where Gallego declares his primary residence, but not in Arizona… where he also declares his primary residence. 

Against a generic Republican, Gallego would surely fail, but the GOP is wants a candidate who alienates all Democrats and a significant chunk of her own party. Her 2022 loss resulted from a foolish decision to attack the center-right just days before the election. 

“We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we?” Lake asked from a campaign stage. “Alright, get the hell out,” she said, before adding, “Boy, Arizona has delivered some losers, haven’t they?” 

They took her advice and Lake ended up 18,000 votes short. 

In ordinary times, Sinema would still be a Democrat and remain the strong favorite. After all, incumbency is a powerful advantage and Arizona has a long history of moderate senators from both parties. 

But it doesn’t take a master strategist to know these are not ordinary times.