How much longer can Netanyahu avoid a hostage deal?

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Tel Aviv following the killing of three young Israeli hostages by the Israeli Defense Forces in a friendly fire incident in Gaza. The demonstrators, who set up tents on Friday morning in front of the Kirya military base where the Israeli cabinet holds its meetings, are calling on the government to reach a deal with Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages. They have vowed to remain there until a deal is made, with some saying they will stay until all the hostages have been returned. There is wide public support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to strike a deal to bring the hostages home; only a small group on the far-right object to any deal that would include the release of Palestinian terrorists.

The Israeli hostages, Yotam Haim, Alon Shimriz and Samer Talalka, were killed after the Israeli army mistook them for terrorists. The incident occurred in Shejaiya, the Gaza neighborhood at the centre of intense fighting between the IDF and Hamas over the past two weeks. 

The Israeli cabinet is under a lot of pressure to reach a deal, but it is also understandably apprehensive

The IDF believes that the trio, abducted by Hamas on October 7, might have been abandoned by their captors or somehow managed to escape. They walked out of hiding bare-chested — to show soldiers that they were not carrying explosives — and holding a makeshift white flag. An IDF marksman mistakenly identified them as a threat and shot two of them. The third hostage ran into hiding, yelling “help” in Hebrew. Israeli forces advanced towards him and killed him anyway.

IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi called it “a difficult and painful event.” The soldiers who shot the hostages were operating against the rules of engagement, Halevi insisted, saying that it is IDF policy not to shoot anyone who surrenders. 

The tragic incident took place only days after a difficult battle in the same neighborhood saw nine soldiers killed. Throughout the war, Hamas has been using deception when trying to lure Israeli troops into traps. Terrorists have been sounding recordings of babies crying and children speaking Hebrew to draw soldiers into booby trapped buildings. 

Because of the extensive network of Hamas tunnels under Gaza, the IDF has been surrounded by an enemy they cannot see, putting them in a dangerous and vulnerable position. Forces have therefore been on extremely high alert, which might partially explain the circumstances that resulted in the accidental killing of the hostages. The IDF also confirmed that the troops had not been briefed about the possibility of finding hostages in Shejaiya and did not expect to encounter any among the neighborhood’s ruins.

Until Friday’s incident, Netanyahu had resisted calls to negotiate with Hamas. Things have changed dramatically since then. The killing of these three hostages, combined with confirmation from the IDF that several other Israeli hostages who were abducted alive have been murdered by Hamas while in captivity, has increased the pressure on the government to prioritize the remaining hostages’ release.

On Friday night, the head of Mossad David Barnea met with Qatari prime minister Mohammed al-Thani in Oslo to discuss a ceasefire agreement. Yesterday it was reported that, after a long period of stagnation in negotiations, there is finally readiness between Israel and Hamas to broker another temporary ceasefire. Egyptian officials involved in the negotiations confirmed that although there are some disagreements about the technical details relating to the release of hostages and to the area where the IDF will retreat during the ceasefire, the two sides are broadly prepared to reach a deal.

Nevertheless, over the weekend, campaigners met with defense minister Yoav Gallant and with cabinet minister Benny Gantz. Gantz, who is in favor of striking a deal with Hamas and reportedly clashed with Netanyahu over the matter, told attendees that the war with the terror group will be protracted. He added that securing the release of hostages is a priority, whereas Hamas can be dealt with later on. 

Despite the encouraging news from Egypt, any negotiations now are likely to be lengthy and complicated. Hamas still claims that it will not negotiate a deal until Israel stops its assault, something that Netanyahu has no intention of doing.

There is also rumored to be disagreement between the leadership of Hamas based in Qatar and in Gaza — a rare occurrence. The leaders residing in Qatar met with representatives of the Palestinian Authority to discuss establishing a joint leadership. They are hoping this might bring an end to the war before Hamas suffers a blow from which it may not be able to recover. 

Hamas’s leaders in Gaza have been outraged by this and demanded the talks stop; they believe that the war is not yet lost. As Israel’s death toll rises and tragic mistakes happen, Hamas hopes that Israeli public opinion will demand its government agree to a ceasefire with favorable terms for the terror group. They also hope that American insistence that Israel switches to low-intensity fighting — something that may start to happen within the next month or so — will ease some of the pressure on them.

The Israeli cabinet is under a lot of pressure to reach a deal, but it is also understandably apprehensive. During the last deal, Hamas were a difficult and unreliable partner, and repeatedly broke the terms of the agreement.

Until Hamas agrees to negotiate seriously, Israel intends to keep applying pressure through military means. However, Israel might have to make difficult compromises, including releasing terrorists who have blood on their hands. This is something they will have to come to terms with.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.