A lifesaving prisoner swap with the worst incentives

The massive prisoner swap which led to Russia’s release of prisoners Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Vladimir Kara-Murza, among many others, is the greatest gift their families and loved ones could ever hope for — in several cases, it is a lifesaving development. But it also serves as an indication of just how much the practice has become a weapon of the world’s great powers.

For my family, the news is deeply personal. Vladimir, a longtime dissident imprisoned for the crime of speaking out against the war in Ukraine in remarks to the state legislature of Arizona, was a pallbearer along with me for my father-in-law, John McCain. My wife joined with his, Evgenia, to speak to a bicameral congressional committee earlier this year to advocate for his release. Behind the scenes, we’ve appreciated the encouragement and guidance of secretary of state Mike Pompeo, Ambassador Robert O’Brien and the current special envoy on this issue, Ambassador Roger Carstens. The negotiation of these releases is delicate and complex — and it requires policy leaders of stubborn substance to achieve.

We are grateful that Vladimir is headed home. Yet as much as this is a victory for humanity, it is also a reminder that what used to be the practice of squalid terror groups in Middle Eastern byways is now official policy for Great Powers. They do it because it works, and it works because America is weak. As O’Brien told the Wall Street Journal recently:

“On the big cases, I think the Biden administration may have unintentionally created a market for future hostage-taking,” says [O’Brien], a predecessor of Carstens during the Trump administration. “You save a current hostage with a big monetary concession or by releasing an arms merchant but you transfer the misery to the next hostage that’s taken.”

Until the day that the United States brings real pain to these kidnappers, without giving them a bit of satisfaction, the abduction and jailing of Americans around the world will continue, and get worse, and grow. Unless, of course, you are a women’s basketball player who checks all the right diversity boxes, in which case you will be freed almost immediately no matter the price.

An American president should never be willing to submit to this type of extortion. Our willingness to shame ourselves is now baked in. The country needs a president with the strength to say no, and to hit back — and who understands that once you pay the Danegeld, you never get rid of the Dane.