Is a partial Ukraine ceasefire a true victory for Trump?

It may be taking him longer than the 24 hours he pledged on the campaign trail, but it appears that President Donald Trump might be getting somewhere on halting the war between Russia and Ukraine: following a call lasting an hour and a half, he has persuaded Vladimir Putin to agree to a partial ceasefire in the conflict. 

According to the statements beginning to emerge from the Kremlin and White House, the call appears to have gone well. This is despite Putin seemingly delaying the call by at least 50 minutes, after speaking at a conference for business lobbyists in Moscow earlier in the afternoon. A classic power play the Russian president often likes to pull out to impress his might and status on those he’s meeting with, it was certainly a curious decision on his part to keep the President of the United States – an unpredictable, thin-skinned man with the power, in theory, to make Putin’s life very difficult indeed – waiting.

Curiously, the news of Putin’s agreement was broken first by Moscow and not Washington. “Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days,” the statement read. The Russian President “responded positively,” the readout says, giving the Russian military immediate orders to stop attacking. “Technical negotiations” would begin on introducing a naval ceasefire in the Black sea too.

Russia and Ukraine would also take part in a prisoner exchange tomorrow, swapping 175 soldiers each. In a “gesture of goodwill,” Moscow would include 23 seriously injured soldiers, the Kremlin said. Looking further afield, the US and Russia will apparently host hockey matches between the two countries – a move that will go far in ending Moscow’s sporting isolation and a gesture clearly designed to butter up the famously ice hockey-mad Putin.

But while the aerial ceasefire of sorts agreed this afternoon marks some progress in the discussions, this is far from the agreement to a 30-day truce that Trump apparently demanded from the Russian President today. Repeating the “nuances” he had first mentioned on Thursday, Putin again set out his demands for a full ceasefire. Weapon deliveries to Ukraine and recruitment into the Ukrainian armed forces should be halted, as should the sharing of military intelligence with Kyiv. This, somewhat gallingly, the Kremlin said was “a key condition for preventing escalation.” There is little indication, then, that Putin has dropped any of the maximalist demands he set out last week.

It was, of course, too much to expect Putin to agree to a full truce with Ukraine off the bat of this single phone call with Trump. But even with a partial ceasefire such as this, it will be another matter entirely to see whether Putin actually keeps his word. Crucially, it appears this agreement today does nothing to stop Moscow targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, meaning civilian casualties will continue rising during this period. There is also nothing to stop the Kremlin continuing to target energy infrastructure – as they have done numerous times over the past three years – while denying that that was their intended target.

According to the White House, Trump will now call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to relate the details of his call with Putin. Zelensky has expressed concerns numerous times that a ceasefire that prevents Ukraine from receiving weapons, military intelligence or from boosting its armed forces will leave it vulnerable to attack from Russia.

The concern with a ceasefire – particularly if the White House bans Ukraine from rearming – is that Russia will use the 30 days to do just that. With Moscow’s penchant for staging false flag attacks – as seen in the opening salvos of this conflict three years ago – there is every chance Putin could restart the war at any moment of his choosing, and blame Kyiv for the trigger in the process.

In what may come as a small relief to Kyiv, it appears so far that there was little talk between Trump and Putin of any division of Ukrainian territory at this stage, contrary to what the American President had trailed earlier this week. According to the White House, further discussions between Russia and the US will be held in the Middle East “immediately.”

It will no doubt be long before we hear Trump’s version of today’s phone call. He will most likely paint it in terms that portray it as a successful discussion between two strong-willed leaders, with himself as the hero. But for as long as the American President does little to push back against his Russian counterpart’s maximalist demands to weaken and divide Ukraine, the only winner of any such “negotiations” is Putin alone.