A very Cold War looms in Antarctica

Russia’s reported discovery of 510 billion barrels of oil in Antarctica has led to warnings of a new “Cold War” of sorts. “Russia could rip up a decades-old treaty and claim oil-rich Antarctic land,” Yahoo News told its readers. The Daily Telegraph said “Russia (has) sparked fears of an oil grab in British Antarctic territory.”

Russia is a major polar player

The reaction to the find — which was made in evidence submitted to Britain’s House of Commons Environment Audit Committee — suggested there was potential for conflict. Some of this alleged oil is thought to be in the Weddell Sea, a remote body of water that happens to be part of what the UK would term “British Antarctic Territory,” or, as their counterparts in Buenos Aires and Santiago would prefer to refer to it, the Argentine and Chilean Antarctic Territories. The prospect of Moscow eyeing up the possible resources of a portion of Antarctica claimed and counter-claimed by three other nations set alarm bells ringing.

Russia’s quest for Antarctic oil turns out to be a little more complicated than some of those enthusiastic reports implied. But they are fundamentally right in one regard: Russia is engaged in activities that challenge the norms, rules and values of the much-lauded 1959 Antarctic Treaty. 

The Treaty has, over the past sixty-five years, been signed by over fifty states including the US, Russia, China, UK and India — and sets out some clear expectations. All signatories have committed themselves to peaceful activity, championed science and agreed to work with frameworks and conventions that help to regulate activity such as fishing and environmental protection. The Antarctic Treaty System relies on consensual governance and all parties agree to put their differences about ownership to one side. Crucially, they also agreed to a protocol on environmental protection in 1991 and signed up to a permanent ban on mining. 

Russia is an awkward actor in Antarctic governance. It tends to be brazen in its behavior and often issues statements at the annual Antarctic Treaty consultative meetings and related fisheries meetings that are obstructive. The 2022 meeting in Berlin was particularly awkward with the Russian delegation demanding that the final report contain the following statement: ‘The Russian Federation expressed its outrage at the characterization of its activities in Ukraine as unprovoked and unjustified… It stated that its military operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine was necessary to protect Russians from Ukrainian aggression.”

But Russia is also hard to ignore. It is a major polar player which maintains scientific stations around Antarctica. It tends to be suspicious of Western claimant states and also mindful that newer polar powers like China have established their own network of stations. China is a major fishing nation and views the Southern Ocean as a strategic resource frontier. Russia, on the other hand, does not have a large distant water fishing fleet like China. Instead, in recent years, Russia has used the polar marine geosurvey expedition and vessel Alexander Karpinsky, both controlled by Rusgeo (a state geological company), to carry out seismic surveys of regional Antarctic seas. In one statement released in 2020, the company noted that based on their surveying work, they thought that “potential hydrocarbon resources in the identified sedimentary basins are estimated at approximately 70 billion tons.” This 70 billion tons is the equivalent of 510 billion barrels of oil.

None of this exploration is new, however. Russia has been surveying in the region for years and the Karpinsky has been a regular visitor in and out of the polar gateway port of Cape Town. The South African newspaper, the Daily Maverick, has conducted some sterling investigative journalism and helped to expose further how South Africa is aiding and abetting the sanction-hit Russian Federation. 

The real challenge is what to do about all of this. For now, Russia is not mining in Antarctica. But what it is doing is more than “scientific research.” 

The reason for Russia’s activity is rooted in a conspiratorial view that “dominant” polar powers such the US and its close allies including the UK want to restrain Moscow. The Antarctic has never been just a gigantic scientific laboratory for Russia. It is a resource frontier in which the country must ensure its interests are not compromised by those who have greater capacity to exploit it. Russia is keen to ensure that marine conservation is not used to shut down its potential to benefit from fishing. President Putin’s announcement that the Vostok science station was being modernized in January 2024 was deliberately framed to highlight its potential and encourage other nations to work with it. Aspiring BRICS nations such as Iran and Saudi Arabia might be high on the list of possible collaborators alongside the ever-present Belarus. Iran has recently issued statements articulating its Antarctic ambitions.

What can the West do about the news that Russia is conducting seismic surveying in the Weddell Sea? It should use the forthcoming Antarctic Treaty consultative meeting in India next week to press the Russian delegation yet again about its activities. The US, UK and allies should demand that Russia reaffirm its commitment to the permanent mining ban and share further information about the future voyages of the Karpinsky. Ideally, the Western nations would try wherever possible to use its polar science capabilities to build tentative bridges with parties including Russia, and find ways to push forward marine conservation, land ecology, ice sheet modeling and other forms of climate change-related research. 

But there are always dangers to confronting Russia — a country that believes the West is determined to weaken it. Russian delegations in Antarctic meetings do walk out. Russia has been accused of being obstructive long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine added further zest. Three years ago, Russia proved to be a thorn in the UK’s side by refusing to endorse fishing catch limits in and around the island of South Georgia. The UK ignored Russia’s provocation and issued fishing licenses which provide vital revenue for the UK territory’s government in South Georgia. The net result was to anger the US who criticized the UK’s unilateral action. Given the next polar meeting is being held in India, there is a real chance that Antarctic Treaty delegations split along BRICS and non-BRICS coalitions. 

The UK needs more than ever to develop and publish its Antarctic strategy and be explicit about what its core interests are. The UK Foreign Office has an Antarctic strategy but have never published it. Encouragingly, FCDO minister David Rutley confirmed recently that he had commissioned officials to develop a strategy “for public release, later this year in the autumn, that will define the UK’s longstanding interests in the Antarctic and set out our ambitions for the region.” The EU is expected to follow suit with a similar strategy this fall too. 

Russia’s interest in the Antarctic isn’t going to go away any time soon. Britain has a real opportunity to lead a coalition that would preserve the continent’s place as neutral ground before raw geopolitics interferes further. It would be wise not to squander it.

This article was originally published on The Spectator’s UK website.